Hurricane Hilary may turn toward Baja

SUMMIT COUNTY — Hurricane Hilary regained strength Monday, redeveloping sustained winds of 135 mph as it continued to move west over warm waters and in a low wind-shear environment. The storm is expected to weaken during the next few days as it moves over cooler water, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Whether or not Hilary will curve sharply north and potentially affect Baja is still unclear. Some of the forecast models show the storm making a sharp jog to the northeast Wednesday, on a path that could lead Hilary toward the southern end of the peninsula, but other forecasts suggest the hurricane will once again start heading out into the open waters of the Pacific. Check the NHC forecast discussion for more details.

The hurricane center said the uncertainty toward the end of the five-day forecast period is still quite high, so residents of southern Baja will probably be watching the storm closely the next few days. In any case, Hilary is likely to bring some big surf to Baja and potentially even parts of California.

In the Atlantic, the hurricane center now says that the remnants of Tropical Storm Ophelia are again showing signs of organization. That area of disturbed weather will bring heavy rain to parts of the northern Leeward Islands in the next few days. Forecasters said there’s a 60 percent chance the system will reform as a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours.

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Typhoons, Cyclones and Hurricanes: What's the Difference?

Typhoon Roke is currently pounding central Japan, causing massive blackouts, flooding and at least three deaths. Roke is the second typhoon to hit Japan this month, coming only three weeks after Typhoon Talas struck the west side of the island nation, killing more than 60 people.

These types of large storms are seasonal, running almost exclusively between the spring and the new year. So far, there have been a number of major storms across the world, including Hurricane Irene, which slammed the Caribbean and traveled up the East Coast of the United States.

So what exactly is the difference between a typhoon, a cyclone and a hurricane?

Technically, all three are categorized under the umbrella-term "Tropical Cyclone." But just as a square is a rectangle, but a rectangle is not a square -- the distinction between these three types of storms vary in the details. The difference lies not in any meteorological difference, but in the geographical difference. (Contrary to popular belief, the designation has nothing to do with a storm's rotation. Clockwise or counter-clockwise, it doesn't matter.

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Hurricane Irene costs Delaware River and Bay Authority $1.3 million in lost revenue

NEW CASTLE, Del. — Hurricane Irene’s late-August assault on the East Coast cost the Delaware River and Bay Authority more than $1.3 million in lost fares and tolls, officials said Tuesday.

The authority was forced to shut down its Cape May-Lewes Ferry for four days when the storm struck the area and saw traffic drop off sharply on the Delaware Memorial Bridge as drivers stayed off of roadways.

“The DRBA will not be able to make up the revenue lost, particularly at the ferry,” said Jim Salmon, spokesman for the bi-state authority. “August is typically one of the top months for traffic volume at both the Cape May-Lewes Ferry and the Delaware Memorial Bridge.”

Authority commissioners, meeting here Tuesday, were told overall traffic was down 8.6 percent on the bridge with only 1,596,323 vehicles passing through the tolls. At the ferry, which crosses the Delaware Bay between North Cape May and Lewes, Del., only 41,415 vehicles paid fares (down 19.4 percent) and the number of passengers using the crossing dropped 16.9 percent to 138,861.

The figures compare usage numbers from August 2010 compared to August 2011.

Also at the ferry, with terminals in North Cape May and Lewes, food and beverage revenues dropped 12.2 percent this year compared with 2010 and retail revenues fell 17.5 percent , officials said.

The hit from Irene translated to $703,000 less in tolls at the Delaware Memorial Bridge ($8,933,000 compared to the anticipated $9,636,000) and $629,222 less in revenues from the ferry ($2,393,000 compared to the anticipated $3,022,000).

Overall, DRBA officials said total authority revenues totaled $12,707,000 in August, $1,343,000 short of the $14,050,000 which had been anticipated.

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Corps Pegs 2011 Flood Damage to Levees at $2B

The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers estimates it will cost more than $2 billion to repair the damage to the nation’s levees, dams and riverbanks caused by this year’s excessive flooding, a sum that dwarfs $150 million it currently has to make such repairs and that doesn’t account for damage from Hurricane Irene or Tropical Storm Lee.

Floodwaters that raged down the nation’s rivers this year have strained dams, eroded riverbanks, filled harbors with silt and ripped football field-sized holes in some earthen levees protecting farmland and small towns. The damage estimate, confirmed to The Associated Press by corps officials, promises to be more significant than with a typical flood in which high water recedes quickly.

The estimate does not factor in flood damage caused by Hurricane Irene and Tropical Storm Lee, and the corps does not have an estimate of the damage from those storms yet.

Along some stretches of the Missouri River, levees have been holding back floodwaters since June 1 as the corps lowered water levels from upstream dams that had filled to overflowing with record runoff from rain and winter snows. That water ultimately proved too much for many levees downstream in states such as Iowa and Missouri. Record high water levels also created havoc along the lower Mississippi from Missouri to Louisiana.

“I’m really nervous about it,” Tom Waters, chairman of the Missouri Levee and Drainage District Association, said of the limited resources. “I think the corps is real nervous about it, too.”

The Senate is considering a $7 billion emergency disaster relief bill, but only $1.3 billion of that would go to the corps. A competing House bill would allocate $3.7 billion to overall disaster aid, $226 million of it to the corps, although Congress could provide more money in future legislation.

Iowa Sen. Tom Harkin said he is working with senators in neighboring states to urge support for the emergency relief.

“I have seen firsthand some of the devastation along these rivers and local communities need financial assistance to recover,” Harkin said.

Sensing it might not get all the money it needs, the corps is racing to repair the most essential damaged flood barriers before the spring runoff. Priority is being given to repairing damaged infrastructure that if left unfixed, would put lives at risk when the snows start melting and the 2012 flood season begins. Repairs only meant to safeguard property from future damage would get second billing.

“We are trying to rack and stack them and see which projects need to be done quickly and which ones can be delayed for some time,” said Jud Kneuvean, emergency management chief for the corps’ Kansas City district. “And honestly some of them can’t be delayed. There is a high likelihood for failure. The consequences associated with failure are high.”

Crews have been bulldozing earth back into place along the Mississippi River’s damaged floodwalls, but repairs along much of the Missouri River will have to wait until the water level fully recedes, likely by October. A dry winter would allow repair work to continue, but ice and snow could force them to shut down temporarily.

“We’ve got to be ready to roll when the water recedes because time is our enemy,” said Jud Kneuvean, emergency management chief for the corps’ Kansas City district. “I will cross my fingers that it will be dry through the winter and spring.”

In northwest Missouri’s Holt County, more than 30 levee breaks inundated more than 230 square miles. Presiding commissioner Mark Sitherwood, whose own corn and soybean crops were ruined, said the levee damage will be in the millions.

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Northeast farmers warn of pumpkin shortage after Hurricane Irene

NEW YORK (AP) — Northeastern states are facing a jack-o’-lantern shortage this Halloween after Hurricane Irene destroyed hundreds of pumpkin patches across the region, farmers say.

Wholesale prices have doubled in some places as farmers nurse their surviving pumpkin plants toward a late harvest. Some farmers are trying to buy pumpkins from other regions to cover orders.

“I think there’s going to be an extreme shortage of pumpkins this year,” said Darcy Pray, owner of Pray’s Family Farms in Keeseville, in upstate New York. “I’ve tried buying from people down in the Pennsylvania area, I’ve tried locally here and I’ve tried reaching across the border to some farmers over in the Quebec area. There’s just none around.”

Hurricane Irene raked the Northeast in late August, bringing torrents of rain that overflowed rivers and flooded fields along the East Coast and into southern Canada. Pray saw his entire crop, about 15,000 to 20,000 pumpkins, washed into Lake Champlain.

But pumpkin farmers had been having a difficult year even before the storm. Heavy rains this spring meant many farms had to postpone planting for two or three weeks, setting back the fall harvest, said Jim Murray, owner of the Applejacks Orchard in Peru, N.Y.

A late harvest can be fatal to business because pumpkin sales plummet after Halloween on Oct. 31. Wholesalers need to get pumpkins on their way to stores by mid-September.

Another spate of rain about two weeks before Irene caused outbreaks of the phytophthora fungus —a type of water mold — in many fields, said Jim Stakey, owner of Stakey’s Pumpkin Farm in Aquebogue, on New York’s Long Island.

This week a cold snap threatened to kill the surviving vines, Murray said.

“We were real close to a frost last night,” Murray said Saturday. “It was 34, and if we had had a frost, a lot of immature pumpkins would have never made it.”

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In the wake of Hurricane Irene and Tropical Storm Lee, sediment choked the Hudson River in New York City.

On September 7, The New York Times noted the river’s unusual brown or reddish hue, likely driven by runoff occurring upstate.

The Advanced Land Imager (ALI) on NASA’s Earth Observing-1 (EO-1) satellite captured these natural-color images of the Hudson River and East River around Ellis Island. Both images are rotated and north is at right. The top image shows the area on September 12, 2011. The bottom image shows the same place about a year earlier, on September 2, 2010.

Flooding not only raises river levels, but also increases the amount of sediment they carry. Torrential rain eats away at the ground, washing mud and debris into streams. After it is deposited into a river, sediment may sink to the bottom of the riverbed, or may flow with the water toward the sea. Multiple rivers feed the Hudson, and some of the sediment winding up in the river in early September 2011 included reddish clays from the Catskills region, The New York Times reported.

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Tropical Storm Aere-Western North Pacific Ocean

In a time series of imagery from NASA's Aqua satellite, the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) instrument showed Tropical Storm Aere's progress over the weekend on May 6 at 16:59 UTC, May 7 at 05:29 UTC, and Monday, May 9 at 05:17 UTC. Infrared data basically takes the temperature of a tropical cyclone's clouds and the coldest areas indicate the strongest thunderstorms and areas of heaviest rainfall. Those coldest cloud temperatures (highest, strongest thunderstorms) and are as cold as or colder than -63F/-52C.

On May 6, when Aere was a tropical depression (03W) it appeared to be more concentrated with the heaviest rainfall and strongest thunderstorms over open ocean. By Saturday, May 7, those heavy rains overspread land areas. On Monday, May 9, the circulation seemed to become weaker and convection seemed to appear more scattered and has decreased in AIRS imagery.

Warnings are still in effect in the Philippines as Aere continues to move north. Public storm warning signal #1 is in effect in the following provinces: Luzon: Quirino, Ifugao, Mt. Province, Kalinga, Apayao and Batanes. Public storm warning signal #2 is in effect for: Luzon: Cagayan, Babuya and Calayan.

The four fatalities caused by Tropical Storm Aere occurred in Balatan, Camarines Sur where a landslide took three lives, and another person drowned in floodwaters in Leyte. Radio reports also noted that nine people at the Manila airport were injured when lightning struck a plane on the tarmac on May 7.

Tropical Depression 03W-Western North Pacific Ocean

Tropical Depression 03W near the Philippines, according to data from NASA's Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission satellite. NASA's Aqua satellite confirmed the data through cold cloud-top temperatures and rain continues to fall in the Philippines today where the storm has been given the local name "Bebeng."

System 93W strengthened into Tropical Depression Three early on May 6 and is forecast to move toward Luzon late into the weekend. At 1500 UTC on May 6, the center of TD03W was located east of Visayas about 460 nautical miles east-southeast of Manila, the Philippines near 11.9 North and 138.0 East. It was moving toward the northwest at 3 knots. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 knots.

On May 6, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) had not issued any warnings in the Philippines. The forecast from PAGASA on Friday, May 6 noted that clouds and scattered showers would affect the Bicol Region, Visayas and northern Mindanao, with thunderstorms developing over the Bicol Region and Visayas. Some of the rainfall could be heavy in those areas and may trigger flash flooding and landslides.

The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission satellite, managed by NASA and the Japanese Space Agency flew over Tropical Depression 03W on Friday, May 6 at 0837 UTC. TRMM noticed that the storm's rainfall was still concentrated on the western side of circulation, although the northern and eastern areas of the storm were also showing rainfall. Only a couple of very small areas of heavy rainfall were seen in the TRMM image around the northeastern fringes of circulation. In those small, isolated areas rain was falling at about 2 inches per hour. Rainfall around the rest of the storm was moderate, falling at rates between 20 and 40 millimeters per hour.

System 93W-Western North Pacific Ocean updates

An infrared image taken from the AIRS instrument on NASA's Aqua satellite on May 4 at 17:11 UTC showed large areas of strong convection on System 93W's west and southern edges, where thunderstorms have very cold cloud-top temperatures (-63F/-52C). That strong convection remained on the low's western side on May 5.

On May 5, System 93W's circulation center appears to be near 11.1 North and 128.3 East, about 475 nautical miles east-southeast of Manila, the Philippines. The surface winds are still estimated between 15 and 20 knots. System 93W is still in warm waters that will assist in its strengthening as it continues moving to the northwest near 8 knots.

The eastern Philippines are already experiencing some light rains from System 93W. At 12 p.m. EDT on May 5, the city of Legazpi, Philippines reported light rain with a temperature of 25C/ 77F. The minimum central pressure was 29.80 inches and falling and winds were blowing from the northeast at 5 mph. Thunderstorms are in the forecast for Friday, May 6 and Saturday May 7, as System 93W moves closer.

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System 93W-Western North Pacific Ocean

System 93W is a large low pressure area in the Western North Pacific Ocean that appears poised for tropical development in NASA satellite imagery.

The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) instrument that flies aboard NASA's Aqua satellite captured both an infrared and visible image of System 93W on May 4 at 01:53 UTC. The width of the AIRS image track is 1056 miles, the width of System 93W appears to be approximately 800 miles from west to east. The AIRS imagery showed an improved low-level circulation center and unorganized, but deep convection. Convection is rapidly rising air that forms the thunderstorms that power a tropical cyclone.

The strongest convection appeared around the center of System 93W's circulation where cloud-top temperatures were measured to be as cold as or colder than -63F/-52C. Cloud-top temperatures are important because they tell forecasters how high thunderstorms are, and the higher the thunderstorm, the colder the cloud tops and the more powerful the thunderstorms.

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System 95B-Northern Indian Ocean updates

The ragged low pressure area currently sits several hundred miles from Sri Lanka. The system appears to have fallen apart on infrared satellite imagery from NASA's Aqua satellite today.

On May 2 at 0654 UTC, NASA's Aqua satellite passed over the low pressure area called System 95B in the Northern Indian Ocean. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer instrument that flies aboard Aqua, captured an infrared image of the low that showed a disorganized storm. Estimated sustained winds have dropped to 15 knots and the estimated minimum central pressure in the low is near 1010 millibars.

System 95B-Northern Indian Ocean

The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) instrument that flies aboard NASA's Aqua satellite passed over System 95B from its orbit in space and captured an infrared image of the low pressure area on April 29 at 07:53 UTC. Infrared imagery acts like taking the temperature of the system's clouds - and there were some high, very cold clouds that indicated powerful convection and strong thunderstorms in the center. Some cloud top temperatures were as cold as or colder than -63F/-52C. Infrared imagery indicated that there was scattered convection around all sides of the low-level center, and even some curved banding of thunderstorms.

On April 29, System 95B was located about 420 nautical miles east-northeast of Colombo, Sri Lanka near 9.5 North and 96.5 East. System 95B is drifting and currently has estimated sustained surface winds between 15 and 20 knots. Despite the waters in the Bay of Bengal being warm enough to sustain the development of a tropical cyclone, there is a westerly wind field present.

System 91L-Atlantic Ocean

System 91L sparked the interest of forecasters because it had a small chance to develop into a subtropical or tropical storm last week. Now that chance is zero. On Saturday, April 23, 2011, the showers associated with System 91L diminished. At that time, the low was centered about 360 miles north of San Juan, Puerto Rico. Wind shear had taken its toll on the low and weakened it . As a result, the National Hurricane Center issued their final notice about the system on Saturday.

Currently there are no tropical cyclones expected elsewhere in the Atlantic Ocean, and the official hurricane season doesn't start until June 1.

NASA's TRMM Satellite Estimates Australia's Cyclone Season Rainfall

NASA's TRMM satellite measures rainfall from space and data from it was used to create a map of total cyclone rainfall. The TRMM satellite is managed by both NASA and the Japanese Space Agency, JAXA.

At NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md. data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite was used to create the cyclone rain maps. TRMM-based, near-real time Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA), data were used in an analysis to show rainfall contributed by tropical cyclones that have affected Australia in 2011. Hal Pierce of the NASA TRMM team created the image and included the tracks of tropical cyclones on the image.

"The largest tropical cyclone rainfall contribution was over the coast of northwestern Australia with estimated totals of over 600 millimeters (~23.6 inches)," Pierce said. "Cyclones Bianca, Carlos, Twenty, Errol and their remnants were close enough to the northwestern coast of Australia to add to these rainfall totals."

Tropical Low #1 -Atlantic

Hurricane season doesn't start in the Northern Atlantic Ocean until June 1, but a low pressure system in doesn't seem to want to follow the calendar. There's a low pressure area with a small chance for development north-northeast of Puerto Rico, and the GOES-13 satellite captured a visible image of the storm.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) issued a Special Tropical Weather Outlook today, April 20, that noted the low pressure area was located about 460 miles northeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico at 3:35 p.m. EDT. The NHC noted that slow development is possible over next couple of days. The low is moving west -northwest at 10mph.

The image was created using satellite imagery was captured on April 20 at 17:45 UTC (1:45 p.m. EDT) from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES-13). Although it is not easy to pick out the center of circulation in the image, it is located to the west of the largest area of clouds.

Tropical Storm Errol

NASA's Aqua Satellite Sees Weaker Tropical Depression Errol Crossing West Timor

NASA's Aqua satellite captured an infrared image of Tropical Depression Errol's warming cloud temperatures as it was crossing the southern tip of West Timor today. West Timor is the western and Indonesian portion of the island of Timor. To the east lies the Timor Sea, to the west is the Southern Indian Ocean.

The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) instrument aboard NASA's Aqua satellite captured an infrared image on April 18 at 04:53 UTC (12:53 a.m. EDT) that showed very little strong convection (rapidly rising air that forms thunderstorms) remained in Errol. The strongest areas of convection had cloud-top temperatures as cold as -63F/-52C. However, AIRS data shows that much of the cloud top temperatures in the depression have since warmed. Cloud-top temperatures are important because they tell forecasters how high thunderstorms are, and the higher the thunderstorm, the colder the cloud tops and the more powerful the thunderstorms. Warming cloud top temperatures mean lower cloud heights and indicate that the storm is growing weaker. It means that there's not as much power to lift the air up to create the thunderstorms that power it.

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System 92S-Southern Indian Ocean

Visible imagery from NASA's Aqua satellite showed strong convection around the center of developing tropical low 92S that lies north of the Western Australia coastline. System 92S is still in the Timor Sea today. Early this morning (EDT), April 14, it was about 315 miles west of Darwin, Australia. The southern extent of the low pressure area's clouds, however, already stretch over land in Western Australia. The center of System 92S' circulation at 06:30 UTC was near 13.0 South latitude and 125.5 East longitude. The system appears to be consolidating and there is strong convection near the center of circulation. By 8 p.m. WST Australia local time System 92S' center was near 12.5S and 126.3E. That is 127 miles north of Kalumburu. Although it moved from this morning, System 92S is now nearly stationary.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology has issued a Strong Wind Warning from Kuri Bay to Wyndham for the next 24 to 36 hours. That warning area can expect east-southeasterly wind between 20 and 30 knots with higher gusts and squalls. Seas are expected to be 6 to 10 feet. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer instrument that flies aboard NASA's Aqua satellite captured a visible image of System 92S on 0519 UTC on April 13. In the imagery there was area near the center that appears to have texture and shadows. That area is one of higher, more powerful thunderstorms, and is still over open waters of the Timor Sea.

Tropical Storm 97W - Northwest Pacific Ocean

Infrared data from NASA's Aqua satellite has seen potential in a developing tropical low pressure system near Brunei. Brunei is located on the north coast of the island of Borneo, in Southeast Asia. Apart from its coastline with the South China Sea, it is completely surrounded by the state of Sarawak, Malaysia.

The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) instrument that flies aboard NASA's Aqua satellite captured an infrared image of the tropical low pressure area called "System 97W" on April 6 at 0611 UTC (2:11 a.m. EDT). Infrared data basically takes the temperature of atmospheric, land or oceanic objects. The infrared data revealed the coldest temperatures were in thunderstorm cloud tops around the center of System 97W's circulation. Those cloud tops were as cold as or colder than -63 degrees Fahrenheit (-52 Celsius) indicating strong convection (rapidly rising air that forms the thunderstorms that power a tropical cyclone). That's an indication that the storm is getting stronger. There is also a banding of thunderstorms around the low-level center of circulation.

AIRS data also showed that the sea surface temperatures were above 80F (26.7 C), which is the threshold for maintaining a tropical cyclone, so the water remains a power source for intensification. At 0600 UTC on April 6, 2011, System 97W was about 170 miles west-northwest of Brunei near 6.2 North and 112.4 East. Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15 to 20 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1008 millibars.

Tropical Storm 2W -Northwest Pacific Ocean

The second tropical depression of the Northwestern Pacific Ocean season has formed, just as the first depression has dissipated. NASA's Aqua satellite captured an infrared image of the depression and observed some strong thunderstorms within, and the storm has already caused warnings to be posted.

On April 5, 2011, Tropical Depression 2W formed about 270 miles (434 km) NW of Anderson Air Force Base, Guam, near 16.1 South and 141.1 East. It was moving east-northeast near 19 knots and had maximum sustained winds near 30 knots. The Northern Marianas are expected to feel the effects of the depression as it continues to move in that direction. A tropical storm warning is in force for Agriahan, Pagan and Alamagan Islands in the Northern Mariana Islands.

The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder instrument on NASA's Aqua satellite captured an infrared image of Tropical Depression 2W on April 5 at 0353 UTC. It showed cold, high, strong thunderstorms around the center of circulation with heavy rainfall west of the Northern Marianas islands.

Tropical Depression 1W-Northwest Pacific Ocean

Tropical Depression 1W formed on April 2 and was dissipating by April 4 a couple of hundred miles east southeast of Vietnam and NASA's Aqua satellite captured its brief life. The Northwestern Pacific Ocean basin can experience tropical cyclones almost all year 'round, except that activity is usually minimal in February and March. So, the first tropical cyclone of the new "season" didn't take long to form after the end of March. The Northwestern Pacific includes all of the area north of the equator and west of the International Date Line, including the South China Sea. The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder instrument that flies aboard NASA's Aqua satellite passed over Tropical Depression 1W on April 2 when it was born, and then again on April 3rd, when it faded. That was a short life for the first tropical depression of the Pacific Northwest's hurricane season, but only the beginning.

AIRS data on April second at 05:41 UTC showed a cluster of strong thunderstorms surrounding the weak center of circulation of TD1W. Some of those thunderstorms were dropping heavy rainfall and had very high cloud tops, so high they were as cold as -63 Fahrenheit/-52 Celsius. On April 2, TD1W was located about 280 miles east-southeast of Ho Chi Minh, Vietnam near 9.3 North latitude and 111.2 East longitude. It was moving very slowly at 1 knot to the west and maximum sustained winds were near 25 knots. By April 3 at 0900 UTC it had continued moving slowly, only at a rate of 2 knots westward and was then 315 miles (506 km) east-southeast of Ho Chi Minh, Vietnam near 9.1 North and 111.7 East. It still had maximum sustained winds near 25 knots, but wind shear was battering the system.

On April 4 NASA's Aqua satellite passed overhead once again and noticed that TD1W had become much more disorganized and spread out. By the fourth, TD1W had also moved more than 45 miles farther away from Vietnam and into the South China Sea. Strong convection appeared scattered and disorganized on AIRS' infrared imagery and not around the center of circulation.